List of ParEvo exercises

Preface

In addition to the Facilitators’ objectives for each of the exercises listed below, all these exercises have also been aimed more generic platform level purposes, including:

  1. Testing out the app, to find where and how it could be improved.
  2. Accumulating knowledge about appropriate ways of designing an exercise, which facilitators could make use of.
  3. Identifying different ways of analysing the data that is generated
  4. Identifying ways of generating / identifying implications for action

If you would like help with the design and implementation of a ParEvo exercise, on any scale, email rick.davies@gmail.com

1. Since 2019 (Post-app development)

  1. Forthcoming exercises in 2026/27
    1. The future of kindergarten services in the face of an ageing population.
    2. Stress testing country-level evaluation recommendations in the face of alternative futures
      • Systemic risks associated with climate overshoot scenarios
  2. Trump and the Tariff Wars
    • 14 experts working for a large investment fund
    • 6 iterations covering a five year period
    • Identifying complex scenarios that different risk management strategies can be tested against
    • Contact person: NA (confidential)
  3. Use of ParEvo as a research tool by PhD students
    • Topic: Science communication and expectations of science for contributing to transformative innovation for sustainable futures. For more information: indigo.strudwicke@anu.edu.au at Australian National University (ANU), Canberra, Australia
    • Topic: Future environmental scenarios in Uruguay
  4. Systemic Risk Response: Exploring The Possible 2025-2045. convened by Accelerating Systemic Risk Assessment: ASRA.
    • 12 experts in systemic risk assessment, from around the world
    • 8 iterations covering the 2025-2045 period
    • Looking for “moonshot” ideas, for the management of global systemic risks – multiple, interconnected, and compounding crises in global systems.
    • Contact person: Sarah Hendel-Blackford shendelblackford@asranetwork.org
  5. Participatory analysis of a programme design, post-implementation, by the staff of a philanthropic organisation.
    • This exercise did not construct different versions of the past, or alternative futures. Instead, participants constructed different lines of argument. Each iteration required participants to address a particular facet of that developing argument, (e.g description, evaluation, recommendation) as described in the facilitators guidance for that iteration. It has some similarities with the way discussions are structured on the Kialo.com website. But also significant differences – there is no selection pressure.
    • Contact person: Eva Otero Candelera eva@lamcoop.com
  6. Futures of the Intersex Movement in Asia
    • 13 participants from across Asia, plus 20+ observers
    • 7 iterations covering the period 2024 to 2027
    • Informing the design of a new strategy plan
    • Contact person: Gareth Durrant, DSIL.
  7. ‘Anticipating Futures Scenarios for Civil Society Operating Space’.International Civil Society Centre (Germany),
  8. Quality Assurance Framework Development through Storytelling (Start Network) Testing an organisation’s Quality Assurance framework against multiple alternative futures (generated by other parties) – a thought experiment
  9. Solar Radiation Management and Solar Radiation Management governance (CSER Cambridge).
    • 12 to 15 participants
    • 10 iterations, covering 2020 to 2050
    • One observer, feeding comments to the Facilitator
    • Outputs:
  10. Pathways to Uptake of Character Development Research and Innovations (Oxford Policy Management)
    1. 11 participants per exercise
    2. 6 iterations covering 2 years
    3. Exercises repeated every 12 months
  11. Developing the science of global risk (CSER Cambridge)
    1. 10 participants, mixed gender, multiple countries, experts in their field
    2. 8 iterations covering 8 years
    3. Four observers (two content, two process)
    4. Follow up online survey and face to face group meeting
    5. Outputs: Beard, S. J., et al. (2025). Exploring Futures for the Science of Global Risk (Futures, Volume 168, April 2025), and access to the completed exercise
    6. Contact person: S J Beard sjb316@cam.ac.uk
  12. Future Pathways for Governing Biological Research (CSER Cambridge)
    1. 11 participants, 3 female, 9 male, all with relevant domain knowledge, from multiple countries
    2. 8 iterations
    3. Three observers, no commentators
    4. Facilitator was accompanied by an in house evaluation specialist
    5. Follow up Survey Monkey survey of participants, a video meeting with all participants, and one to one video call with each participant
    6. Outputs: Davies, R., Hobson, T., Mani, L., & Beard, S. (2023). ParEvo: A methodology for the exploration and evaluation of alternative futures. Evaluation, 13563890231188743.
    7. Contact persons: Tom Hobson and Lara Mani
  13. The future risks of biotechnology – a trial exercise (CSER Cambridge)
    1. Up to nine participants, male and female, all with relevant but different domain knowledge
    2. Five iterations – this was a trial run only
    3. No use of Commentators or Observers
    4. Facilitator was accompanied by an in house evaluation specialist
    5. Results will not be publicly available
    6. Contact persons: Tom Hobson and Lara Mani
  14. The future of a seed development and improvement programme, supported by an NGO
    1. Up to nine participants, male and female, from the donor and implementing NGOs
    2. 8 iterations
    3. Independent commentators after the second iteration
  15. Unpacking gender in a UN organisation (Leitmotiv, Consultoría Social)
    1. Up to 15 participants, being volunteer participants from within the organisation
    2. 7 iterations
    3. Independent commentators at two points in time during the 7 iterations, who posted comments on various contributions, prior to the next iteration
    4. Online survey of the views of participants and observers (others in the same organisation) to identify their views of the ParEvo storylines, surviving and extinct
    5. Face to face workshop with participants to discuss exercise results and their implications
    6. Contact person: Eva Otero Candelera eva@lamcoop.com
  16. The world after COP26 (Rick Davies)
    • 15 participants, recruited from Prolific.co (crowdsourcing research participants). Four dropouts in the last iteration.
    • 7 iterations
    • Online survey: 9 questions
    • New feature: After iteration 2, an independent group of four “Commentators” posted comments on the participants contributions
    • The exercise is accessible, in a ParEvo view here
    • Process documentation and anonymised data analysis are being made available here
  17. Ugandan farmers groups experiences experimenting with improved seeds (Global Insight)
    • This set of 12 face-to-face ParEvo exercises was part of an evaluation
    • The exercise involved the development of alternative histories (8 years), plus a more limited development of subsequent alternative futures (2 years)
    • The number of participants ranged from 6 to 10, and included some illiterate farmers as well as literate farmers. Approximately 46% of the farmers were women
    • While there was open discussion in the group, the identity of individual contributors’ contributions was anonymised
    • Contact naama.razyaseef@g-insight.org for further information
  18. What it means to be a UN Volunteer (Leitmotiv, Consultoría Social)
    • This ParEvo exercise is one part of a wider evaluation by IOD PARC
    • The exercise involved the development of alternative histories, rather than alternative futures
    • Involving 12 participants, with diverse backgrounds, self-selected from a pool of more than 1,000
    • Eight iterations
    • Online survey of 1000+ other volunteers
    • Plus a content analysis of the storyline texts, by a specialist evaluator
    • Contact person: Eva Otero Candelera eva@lamcoop.com
  19. Alternate futures for the USA 2020+ (Rick Davies)
  20. Scenario planning 2020 (ODI)
    • 10 participants, all from one organisation. No dropouts
    • 8 iterations, 78 contributions
    • Online survey: 4 questions
    • An analysis of the storylines is not publicly available
    • Anonymised data analysis
  21. Intersecting crises: Coronavirus plus (ODI)
  22. Climate change developments over the next decade (Rick Davies)
    • 7 volunteer participants, part of a Community of Practice. 2 dropouts
    • 7 iterations, 37 contributions
    • Online survey: pile sorting of storylines
    • Now accessible on a ParEvo view
    • Anonymised data analysis
  23. What the near future looks like for Clear Horizon (consulting firm)
    • Not completed, distracted by Christmas 2019 🙂
  24. The future of storytelling (Rick Davies)
    • 6 participants, part of a Community of Practice. 1 dropout
    • 4 iterations, 22 contributions
    • Online survey: pile sorting of storylines
    • Anonymised data analysis

2. Pre-2019 (early app development)

  1. Brexit Britain – after failing to reach an exit agreement by March 31st, 2019
    • 11 participants, from across the world, 1 dropout
    • 4 iterations, 40 contributions
    • Online survey of desirability and likelihood of storylines
    • Anonymised data analysis
  2. The implementation of Most Significant Change impact monitoring by a development project in northern Nigeria
    • 11 volunteer participants, from across the world, 4 dropouts
    • 4 iterations, 37 contributions
    • Online survey of desirability and likelihood of storylines
    • Anonymised data analysis
  3. “A student leaves school at the end of the year…” A classroom exercise with 10 secondary school students in Swansea, Wales, circa 1995, described here.
    • 10 participants (secondary school students), no dropouts
    • 4 iterations, 40 contributions
    • Anonymised data analysis

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