On this page:

• Publications about ParEvo
• Videos about ParEvo
• Ideas that influenced the design of ParEvo
• Research on diversity
• Research on Collective Intelligence
• Research of Scenario Planning methods.
• The use of fiction in scenario planning
• Evolutionary theory and artificial life

Publications about ParEvo

• Beard, S., Cooke, N., Dryhurst, S., Cassidy, M., Gibbins, G., Gilgallon, G., Holt, B., Josefiina, I., Kemp, L., Tang, A., Weitzdörfer, J., Ingram, P., Sundaram, L., & Davies, R. (2025). Exploring futures for the science of global risk. Futures, 168, 103569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2025.103569
• Davies, R. J. (2024). Integrating foresight and evaluation: The example of ParEvo. New Directions for Evaluation, 2024(182), 31–44. https://doi.org/10.1002/ev.20606
• Davies, R., Beard, S. J., Hobson, T., & Mani, L. (2024). 11. Enabling the Participatory Exploration of Alternative Futures With ParEvo. In An Anthology of Global Risk (pp. 337–354). Open Book Publishers. https://www.openbookpublishers.com/books/10.11647/obp.0360/chapters/10.11647/obp.0360.11
• Davies, R., Mani, L., & Hobson, T. (2024). Participatory explorations of alternative futures: Using narrative theories of change. In Theories of Change in Reality. Routledge. https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/oa-edit/10.4324/9781032669618-28/participatory-explorations-alternative-futures-rick-davies-lara-mani-tom-hobson?context=ubx&refId=37e5030e-23e0-43b4-8f9b-4993894d4e0c
• Hutchings, H., & Mugenzi, P. (2023, September 29). A history of civic space, 2024–2034: Outcomes of a ParEvo scenario writing collaboration. https://solidarityaction.network/a-history-of-civic-space/
• ParEvo: A methodology for the exploration and evaluation of alternative futures, Rick Davies, Tom Hobson, Simon Beard, September 2023, Evaluation 30(10)
• Participatory scenario planning in times of uncertainty: five key lessons, by Tiina Pasanen, 6 July 2020. ODI
• Evaluating the Future. Podcast and paper prepared with and for the EU Evaluation Support Services Unit, Rick Davies, 2020
• Davies, Rick. 2007. “Evolving Storylines: A Participatory Design Process?” Rick On the Road (blog). May 27, 2007.

Video presentations about ParEvo

2022: CEDIL Webinar: The collaborative exploration of alternative futures: A different approach to Theories of Chang

2021: Evaluating Alternate Futures – Why Do So And How Can It Be Done? Presentation at the EES 2021 Conference

2021: Presentation to the World Futures Studies Federation conference, November, Berlin

2021: PowerPoint presentation to the UK Evaluation Society

2021: Scanning the Horizon Methods Workshop: Par Evo, video of webinar for the International Civil Society Centre, Germany

2020: A 12 minute YouTube video explaining how ParEvo works

2020: “Evaluating the Future” podcast for the European Union Evaluation Support Services team.

2020: UK Evaluation Society Webinar: “Evaluating the Future” pw: b4y9Wr02

2019: A 12 slide PowerPoint presentation produced in early 2019 is available here. 

2019: UK Evaluation Society Evaluation 2019 conference is available here.

Ideas that influenced the design of ParEvo

1998 PhD thesis

Davies, R.J. (1998) Order and Diversity: Representing and Assisting Organisational Learning in Non-Government Aid Organisations. Ph.D Thesis. Centre for Development Studies, University of Wales – Swansea

“Other potential applications of the evolutionary algorithm have been identified. One is the participatory development of past project histories (or future project plans) in the form of evolving branching structures of narrative. Participants would choose which branch-end to add a next step in the story. New branches would emerge where an existing branch was added to by more than one participant. Branches would die out where no new additions were placed there by participants. Such constructions could capture something of the contentious nature of history and the way in which it is socially constructed” Page 337.

Influences on the thesis

• Campbell, Donald T. 1960. “Blind Variation and Selective Retentions in Creative Thought as in Other Knowledge Processes.” Psychological Review 67 (6): 380–400. and…
• Bateson, Gregory. 1979. “Mind and Nature: A Necessary Unity” . Dutton.
  • “Information consists of differences that make a difference” p99.…

Research on diversity

• Page, Scott E. 2011. Diversity and Complexity. Princeton University Press.
• Page, Scott E., Earl Lewis, Nancy Cantor, and Katherine Phillips. 2017. The Diversity Bonus: How Great Teams Pay off in the Knowledge Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Research on Collective Intelligence

• Surowiecki, J. (2004). The wisdom of crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies and nations. Little, Brown.
• Literature review on collective intelligence: a crowd science perspective. Yu, C., Chai, Y., & Liu, Y. (2018). International Journal of Crowd Science, 2(1), 64–73.

Research on scenario planning methods

• Bengston, D., (2019) Futures Research Methods and Applications in Natural Resources,Journal Society & Natural Resources An International Journal Volume 32, Issue 10
• Derbyshire, J. (2019). Use of scenario planning as a theory-driven evaluation tool. FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE, 1(1),
• Oteros-Rozas, Elisa, Berta Martín-López, Tim Daw, Erin Bohensky, James Butler, Rosemary Hill, Julia Martin-Ortega, et al. 2015. “Participatory Scenario Planning in Place-Based Social-Ecological Research: Insights and Experiences from 23 Case Studies.” Ecology and Society 20 (4).
• N. Raford, Online foresight platforms: Evidence for their impact on scenario planning & strategic foresight, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2014.03.008
• Amer, Muhammad, Tugrul U. Daim, and Antonie Jetter. 2013. “A Review of Scenario Planning.” Futures 46 (February): 23–40.
• List, Dennis. 2007. “Scenario Network Mapping.” Journal of Futures Studies 11 (4): 77–96.

The use of fiction in scenario planning

• Slocombe, W. (2021.). Militaries plunder science fiction for technology ideas, but turn a blind eye to the genre’s social commentary. The Conversation.
• Oltermann, Phillip. (2021, June 26). ‘At first I thought, this is crazy’: The real-life plan to use novels to predict the next war. The Guardian.
• Liptak, A. (2020). The U.S. Military Is Turning to Science Fiction to Shape the Future of War. OneZero.
  • “Fiction is accessible in ways that nonfiction is not,” Cole says. “The desire to finish a novel is strong the deeper you get into it, and that’s not always true with a white paper.” Furthermore, “fiction is exceptional at allowing people to understand complicated issues from a character-driven point of view that informs the kinds of insights that you need when you’re considering a question of conflict.”
• Liptak, A. (2019, July 24). The French Army is hiring science fiction writers to imagine future threats. The Verge.
• Ryan, M. (n.d.). Science Fiction, JPME and the Australian Defence College. Retrieved 29 July 2021

Evolutionary theory and artificial life

• See Campbell and Bateson references above
• Soros, Kenneth O. Stanley, Joel Lehman, Lisa. 2017. ‘Open-Endedness: The Last Grand Challenge You’ve Never Heard Of’. O’Reilly Media. 19 December 2017.